There’s not much for Donald Trump to cheer as regards the war on Iran, with growing signs that he underestimated the Islamic Republic’s resilience.
The two main developments of the past 24 hours will only add to US frustrations — and to the pressure on the president to end the carnage the conflict has unleashed across the Middle East and global markets.
First, Iran’s most senior clerics defied him by picking Mojtaba Khamenei, the hardline son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, as the new supreme leader.
His election suggests no shift in Iran’s approach to the conflict, let alone any bending to Trump’s will. Trump told Fox News he is “not happy” with the selection.
Barely an hour after the announcement at the Asian open, there was chaos in the oil market. Brent surged almost 30% to nearly $120 a barrel, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forcing Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to cut production.
Oil pared its gains after reports that the Group of Seven nations will look at releasing fuel reserves, but it remains above $100.
Trump insists oil’s rise won’t last long and is a “small price to pay.” But with his party facing tricky midterm elections and with gasoline pump costs in the US already jumping last week, it’s more bad news.
Overnight, the US announced the death of a seventh soldier since the conflict erupted with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
The toll in Iran is more than 1,300, officials there say. And Arab Gulf states, as well as Israel, are still being targeted daily by Iranian drones and missiles.
For now, the war is unrelenting. Whatever diplomatic efforts are under way to de-escalate seem to be going nowhere. — Paul Wallace